In Ghana, real GDP growth stabilized in Q2 (+5.4% y/y, the same as in Q1), fueled by a steady expansion in the manufacturing sector (+11.1% y/y in Q2). Moreover, recent foreign direct investment trends have shown an increasing attractiveness, with perhaps the highest net inflows in Ghana’s history in 2018 (USD4bn), despite an overall decline of FDI in Africa (-20% last year). As a result, Ghana’s current account deficit is fully covered by long-term financing. The commodity sector is the main driver, but the willingness to organize a tech & digital regional hub in Ghana (given the low attractiveness of Nigeria) is also driving growing inflows into the country, with a good chance to build a regional trade hub. Ghana should post the third largest export gains in the continent after the implementation of the continental free trade area (exports should grow by +USD52bn by 2030). We expect GDP growth to benefit from this investor-friendly environment, resulting in +5.7% in 2018 and +6% in 2019.
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Weekly Export Risk Outlook 24 October 2018