In the second quarter of 2019 Greece was the fastest-growing Eurozone economy with GDP expanding by +0.8% q/q after +0.2% q/q in the previous quarter. The positive performance was largely driven by the external sector – thanks to strong export growth (+3.3% q/q) coupled with a contraction in imports
(-0.8% q/q) – and a strong expansion in public consumption (+4.3% q/q). Meanwhile investment (-5.5% q/q) and private consumption (-0.4% q/q) recorded declines. Going forward, prospects for Greek exports are likely to become more subdued as the Eurozone economic momentum remains muted and trade uncertainties are unlikely to go away anytime soon, but strengthening domestic demand will come to save the day. After all, economic sentiment has risen markedly following the business-friendly New Democracy’s victory in the 2019 parliamentary elections – with consumer confidence rising to a 19-year high in August. For 2019 as a whole we continue to stick to our GDP growth forecast of +1.6%.
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Weekly Export Risk Outlook 4 September 2019