Economic growth slowed to +7.1% y/y in Q3 (after +8.2% in Q2) due to a lower contribution of net export and a slower expansion of private consumption. Exports edged up to +13.4% y/y (after +12.7% in Q2) but the performance was offset by a surge in imports (+25.6% y/y). On the domestic side, private consumption slowed but remained resilient at +7% (after +8.2% in Q2). Growth of investment (+12.5% in Q3 after +10% in Q2) and government consumption (+12.7% after +7.6%) accelerated. Meanwhile, short-term indicators suggest stronger growth in Q4. Infrastructure output rose by +4.8% y/y in October (up from +4.3% in September). Bank credit growth is above +14% in November despite a tightening of monetary policy. And business surveys are well oriented: both the Manufacturing (54.0 in November) and Services PMIs (53.7 in November) are well above 50 and increasing. In that context, we expect economic growth to rise by a solid +7.4% in FY2018-19 (from +6.7% in FY2017-18).
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Weekly Export Risk Outlook 5 December 2018