Indonesia: Moving up

5 min

Real GDP growth accelerated to +5.2% y/y in Q4 2017, up from +5.1% in Q3. Investment picked up speed (+7.3% y/y, up from +7.1%), private consumption increased by +5% y/y (from +4.9%) and exports rose by +8.5% y/y. Full-year 2017 growth edged up to +5.1% from +5% in 2016. Going forward, there is room for cautious optimism. Export growth will remain robust thanks to rising commodity prices and solid external demand. The positive investment cycle is set to continue on the back of higher public spending on infrastructure, a rise of foreign direct investment inflows and stronger credit growth. Loan growth picked up to +8.4% y/y in December from +7.5 in the previous month. The degree of the expected growth acceleration will largely depend on consumer spending expansion which is projected to edge up from +4.9% in 2017, albeit at a slow pace, retarded by rising inflation. Against this background, we forecast a modest acceleration of GDP growth to +5.3% in 2018.