Kazakhstan: Rebound in 2017 - slight moderation in 2018

5 min

Real GDP grew by +4% in 2017, following two years of meagre annual growth of just about +1%. The strong rebound was mostly driven by the turnaround in industrial production which rose by +7.1% in 2017 (after a -1.1% decline in 2016), led by the mining industry which surged by +9.3% (-2.7% in 2016). The latter reflects the sharply increased crude oil production to 86 bn metric tons in 2017, up from 78 bn metric tons in 2016, which was mainly a result of the reopening of the Kashagan oil field at end-2016. The services sector grew by a moderate +2.7% in 2017 (up from +0.8% in 2016) while construction (+1.9%, down from +7.9%) and agricultural output (+2.9%, down from +5.5%) decelerated last year. However, growth moderated in Q4 2017 as well as in January 2018 (industrial production +5.2% y/y; mining +4.5% y/y) as base effects in oil production have begun to materialize. Euler Hermes forecasts full-year growth to slow down somewhat to +3.2% in 2018.