Mexico: Rebound confirms resilience

5 min

A first estimate has put real GDP growth in Q4 2017 at +1% q/q seasonally adjusted (+1.8% y/y unadjusted), reflecting a rebound following the temporary contraction by -0.3% q/q in Q3 due to natural disasters. This takes full-year 2017 growth to +2.1%, in line with our forecast. Services growth surprised on the upside (+1.2% q/q after -0.1% in Q3), driving the GDP growth acceleration. This suggests that consumer spending remained strong despite inflation reaching a 16-year high in December. Agriculture posted the highest q/q growth (+3.1%) since Q4 2013, while industry continued to struggle (+0.1% q/q, after -0.6% in Q3). We expect Mexico’s economy to remain resilient in 2018, though a moderate slowdown is possible as high interest rates may impede private consumption and investment while elections and NAFTA renegotiations are still uncertain. However, the projected