Poland: Strong growth in 2017, set to continue in H1 2018

5 min

Preliminary estimates show that real GDP growth accelerated markedly to +4.6% in 2017 from +2.9% in 2016. Demand-side details are only partly available as yet but indicate that growth was almost entirely driven by domestic uses (+4.5pp) while net exports made only a tiny positive contribution (+0.1pp). Private consump¬tion grew by +4.8%, up from +3.9% in 2015. Thanks to an increased utilization of EU funding for eligible projects, fixed investment rebounded to a rise of +5.4% in 2017, after it had dropped by -7.9% in 2016. Data for Q4 are not provided as yet but the full-year figure suggests that Q4 growth surged to above +5% y/y. Moreover, industrial production rose by +8% y/y in Q4, up from an average +6% y/y in Q1-Q3. The manufacturing PMI eased to a still sound 54.6 points in January (55.0 in December), held back by capacity constraints but new orders and export orders accelerated. All this bodes well for the start of 2018 and we forecast +4% growth for this year as a whole.