Russia: Early indicators point to uptick in growth in Q2

5 min
Manfred Stamer
Manfred Stamer Senior Economist for Emerging Europe and the Middle East

Second official estimates confirmed that the economy grew by +1.3% y/y in Q1, up from +0.9% in Q4 2017. Production-side details indicate a modest recovery in industrial activity in Q1, with manufacturing up by +1.9% (from -2.8% in Q4), mining +0.7% (from -0.9%), energy +2.1% (from -4.1%) and utilities +0.2% (from -1.8%). In contrast, construction (-5.1%) and agriculture (-0.1%) contracted in Q1, while most services sectors showed a robust performance. Meanwhile, monthly activity data suggest a further strengthening of the economy in Q2. In April-May, industrial production growth picked up to an average +3.8% y/y, driven by strong manufacturing output (+5.4%), retail sales were up by +2.6%, construction by +3.5% and agriculture by +2.4%. Euler Hermes forecasts full-year GDP growth of +1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.