Based on advanced estimates, real GDP growth decelerated to +2.6% y/y in Q3 from +4.1% in Q2, driven by a continued contraction in construction and a slowdown in services. Non-oil domestic exports rose by +8.3% y/y in September (up from +5% in August). Demand was mainly driven by the U.S. (+41.5%) and the EU (+21.6) and sectors that benefited from rising overseas sales such as pharmaceuticals (+67.5%) and chemicals (+5.7%). Domestically, retail sales continued to contract but at a slower pace (-0.4% y/y in September, after -2.7% in August). Looking ahead, we expect full-year GDP growth to decelerate to +2.9% in 2018 and +2.6% in 2019 (from +3.6% in 2017) on the back of slower export growth. PMIs already signal slower expansion in new export orders and heightened tensions between China and the U.S. suggest further downward pressures going forward.
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Weekly Export Risk Outlook 24 October 2018