Singapore and Taiwan: Headwinds

5 min

In Taiwan, USD-denominated exports rose by +1.9% y/y in August after +4.7% in July. Industrial production slowed to +1.3% y/y from +4.7% in July. Slowing growth in new export orders (+7.1% y/y in August from +8% in July) suggest further deceleration in the near term. In Singapore, the story is similar with slower growth in exports (NODX growth at +5% y/y, down from +11%) and industrial production (+3.3% y/y after +6.7%). The Manufacturing PMI also revealed a deterioration of new export orders. Overall, such a deceleration was expected. The beginning of the year was exceptionally strong in Asia with solid growth of exports despite the rise of trade tensions between China and the U.S. And now, as tariffs start to bite, the region is converging to a slower pace of growth. Against that background, we pencil in more moderate GDP growth for Singapore at +2.9% in 2018 (down from +3.6% in 2017) and Taiwan at +2.6% (after +2.9% in 2017).