U.S.: Slowdown still likely

3 min
Dan North
Dan North Senior Economist for North America

Recent data continues to suggest a slowdown in 2020. Real personal consumption, 70% of the economy, gained only +0.1% m/m in October as the y/y rate fell to +2.3% from +3.2% last October. Real disposable income fell
-0.3% m/m, the most in over four years, to +2.8% y/y, down from +3.8% a year ago. The index of leading indicators fell for the third straight month and on a y/y basis it’s the lowest since the recession. Weekly jobless claims fell, but on a four-week basis are +9% above the April low, suggesting a slowing labor market. Consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month to 126.5 points, below the recent high of 135.8 set in July. Corporate profits gained +1.3% q/q, but the y/y rate is only +0.4%. Durable goods orders gained +0.6% m/m but the y/y rate is -0.7%. Core orders gained +1.2% m/m but the y/y rate is -0.8%. Shipments, a component of GDP, rose for the first time in four months, gaining +0.8, but to only +0.4% y/y.