The UK Parliament voted on Monday night on four alternative Brexit options, all of which once again did not find a majority. However, the permanent Custom Union with the EU lost by only 3 votes (vs. 6 last Friday) so there is clearly a momentum building up in the Parliament around this option. Interestingly, the option which got the largest increase in support was the Norway+ option (Custom Union + Single Market). As a reminder, on 29 March the Parliament rejected by a strong margin the “No deal” scenario on 12 April (160 to 400 votes) which is the deadline set by the EU. Revoking Article 50 was also rejected (184 to 293 votes). As a reminder, PM May has until the next EU Summit on 10 April to come up with an alternative solution in the absence of a majority on her deal (already rejected three times by the UK Parliament). The options are: (i) a longer extension of Article 50 with a clear purpose (i.e. negotiating a softer Brexit); (ii) no deal; (iii) no Brexit (i.e. revoke Article 50 unilaterally). The UK Parliament needs to find a majority on one of these Brexit options or Theresa May’s deal and we believe the series of votes will continue in the Parliament in the coming days.
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Weekly Export Risk Outlook 03 April 2019