Ukraine: Gradual growth recovery set to continue

5 min
Manfred Stamer
Manfred Stamer Senior Economist for Emerging Europe and the Middle East

Real GDP grew by +3.1% y/y in Q1, up from +2.2% y/y in Q4 and +2.5% in 2017 as a whole. Fixed investment was the main growth driver in Q1, surging by +17% y/y (only slightly below the average +18.2% in 2017). Consumer spending rose by a robust +5.6% y/y in Q1, though this was down from +7.8% in full-year 2017. In contrast, public spending declined by -1.4% y/y in Q1 (+3.3% in 2017). External trade activity weakened sharply in Q1, with exports contracting by -9.9% y/y (+3.5% in 2017) and imports by -5.4% (+12.2% in 2017). Euler Hermes projects full-year GDP growth of +2.8% in 2018. Meanwhile, CPI inflation fell to 11.7% y/y in May (from 13.1% in April), supported by a moderate recovery in the exchange rate: the UAH has gained +6% against the USD in 2018 YTD.