As expected, global trade of goods in volume terms fell by -1.3% m/m in September after +0.5% in August. However, global trade has bottomed out in Q3 (+0.5% q/q) after being in recession since Q4 2018. The worst could be behind us as we do not expect any further escalation in the U.S.-China trade dispute but we expect global trade of goods and services to remain in a low-growth regime in 2020 (+1.7%, see our report). Noteworthy, companies continued to cut export prices amid low global demand and high inventories. Meanwhile, the global recession in industrial production has been confirmed in Q3 (-0.1% q/q) after no growth in Q2. The Eurozone has remained in recession (-0.8% q/q in both Q2 and Q3), the U.S. has bottomed out (+0.4 q/q after two consecutive quarters of contraction) while emerging markets have remained in no growth territory. Central and Eastern Europe showed resilience, but Latin America, the Middle East and Africa were in recession while Asia registered a sharp slowdown. In China, industrial production has grown by +0.5% q/q in Q3 after similar growth in Q2, three times less compared to the end of 2018. Overall, we expect further monetary easing by a majority of central banks to continue boosting confidence and credit growth and help the global economy bottom out in Q2 2020.
Download the PDF
Weekly Export Risk Outlook 28 November 2019