The collateral damage of too-low growth and tightening financial conditions>
Could the next global crisis come from the construction sector?
After ten years of growth (2008-2018), we have reached the peak in the global construction growth cycle: 2018 will be the turning point according to Euler Hermes’ unique proprietary data on millions of companies across 70 countries.
Global trade in 2019: And the winners are…
In the US, the fiscal stimulus of the Trump administration and a rise in wages associated with the strength of the dollar will keep both domestic demand and imports in-check.
Trade war? Not really (or not yet)
The G20 summit opens tomorrow in Buenos Aires amid concerns over US protectionism. Nevertheless, global trade of goods and services remained relatively resilient this year. In 2019, trade momentum is set to soften to +3.6% (from +3.8% in 2018) in line with softening of global growth, because of tighter financing conditions and those uncertainties around trade Beyond a hypothetic rising protectionism, businesses should prepare for higher cost of trade, trade diversion, and rising political risk
German SMEs and mid-caps have a higher average credit risk than Italian
Euler Hermes Rating’s latest study finds that SMEs and mid-caps in Italy have a lower average 2-year default rate (2.05%) than their German (2.59%), French (3.05%) or even Spanish (3.67%) counterparts. However, the financial profile leader is Germany’s Mittelstand (i.e.SMEs and mid-caps). At 32.4%, the German firms have the highest percentage of investment-grade financial profiles (from BBB to AA and higher) of the four countries studied.