After ten years of growth (2008-2018), we have reached the peak in the global construction growth cycle: 2018 will be the turning point according to Euler Hermes’ unique proprietary data on millions of companies across 70 countries.
In the US, the fiscal stimulus of the Trump administration and a rise in wages associated with the strength of the dollar will keep both domestic demand and imports in-check.
The G20 summit opens tomorrow in Buenos Aires amid concerns over US protectionism. Nevertheless, global trade of goods and services remained relatively resilient this year. In 2019, trade momentum is set to soften to +3.6% (from +3.8% in 2018) in line with softening of global growth, because of tighter financing conditions and those uncertainties around trade Beyond a hypothetic rising protectionism, businesses should prepare for higher cost of trade, trade diversion, and rising political risk
Euler Hermes Rating’s latest study finds that SMEs and mid-caps in Italy have a lower average 2-year default rate (2.05%) than their German (2.59%), French (3.05%) or even Spanish (3.67%) counterparts. However, the financial profile leader is Germany’s Mittelstand (i.e.SMEs and mid-caps). At 32.4%, the German firms have the highest percentage of investment-grade financial profiles (from BBB to AA and higher) of the four countries studied.
The votes are in, and the American voters have come back with a split decision – Democrats won back the House of Representatives while the Republicans maintain control of the Senate. There’s no question that the results will change the course of policy creation in Washington and impact both small and large businesses. Euler Hermes, a global leader in trade credit insurance, shares what business leaders need to know now that the midterm elections are over.
The cost of uncertainty regarding Brexit could be as much as -0.1pp of GDP growth per quarter between now and making a deal Euler Hermes still expect a ‘Blind Brexit’ (70% likelihood): a last-minute deal with the EU where both sides agree on a Free Trade Agreement with very close ties In a ‘No deal’ scenario (25% likelihood), the UK will exit the EU under the WTO conditions: 4% to 5% of mutual import tariffs, with heavy consequences on both sides
The Russian economy is forecast to expand at the modest but steady rate of 1.6% in 2018 and 1.5% 2019, despite the external pressures of sanctions and weak oil prices, according to Euler Hermes, the world’s largest credit insurance company and a member of Allianz Group.
Euler Hermes launches its strategic plan for 2019-2021: “Confidence to be Bold”. The new strategy is powered by a new brand promise and identity, which was revealed to clients and partners in the new group website on September 27th.
Each quarter, Euler Hermes, the world's leading credit insurer, reviews its international macroeconomic scenario and updates its regional growth forecasts per region.