The votes are in, and the American voters have come back with a split decision – Democrats won back the House of Representatives while the Republicans maintain control of the Senate. There’s no question that the results will change the course of policy creation in Washington and impact both small and large businesses. Euler Hermes, a global leader in trade credit insurance, shares what business leaders need to know now that the midterm elections are over.
The cost of uncertainty regarding Brexit could be as much as -0.1pp of GDP growth per quarter between now and making a deal
Euler Hermes still expect a ‘Blind Brexit’ (70% likelihood): a last-minute deal with the EU where both sides agree on a Free Trade Agreement with very close ties
In a ‘No deal’ scenario (25% likelihood), the UK will exit the EU under the WTO conditions: 4% to 5% of mutual import tariffs, with heavy consequences on both sides
The Russian economy is forecast to expand at the modest but steady rate of 1.6% in 2018 and 1.5% 2019, despite the external pressures of sanctions and weak oil prices, according to Euler Hermes, the world’s largest credit insurance company and a member of Allianz Group.
Euler Hermes launches its strategic plan for 2019-2021: “Confidence to be Bold”. The new strategy is powered by a new brand promise and identity, which was revealed to clients and partners in the new group website on September 27th.
A positive global trend to strengthen corporate balance sheets and reduce gearing is masking a rise in leverage in vulnerable sectors and regions and this in turn is creating hotspots of increased risk for cross border trade, according to the world’s leading trade credit insurer Euler Hermes.
Oil price strength in Q2 18 has been driven by geopolitics, in particular heightened tension in Syria and in the Middle East, and subsequently the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.
Hence, the EH model confirms that the market is now being driven by concerns over geopolitically induced supply shortages that may or may not materialize.