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Euler Hermes North America The Midterm Votes Are In

The votes are in, and the American voters have come back with a split decision – Democrats won back the House of Representatives while the Republicans maintain control of the Senate. There’s no question that the results will change the course of policy creation in Washington and impact both small and large businesses. Euler Hermes, a global leader in trade credit insurance, shares what business leaders need to know now that the midterm elections are over.

Brexit A blind date is better than a bad breakup

The cost of uncertainty regarding Brexit could be as much as -0.1pp of GDP growth per quarter between now and making a deal Euler Hermes still expect a ‘Blind Brexit’ (70% likelihood): a last-minute deal with the EU where both sides agree on a Free Trade Agreement with very close ties In a ‘No deal’ scenario (25% likelihood), the UK will exit the EU under the WTO conditions: 4% to 5% of mutual import tariffs, with heavy consequences on both sides

Euler Hermes macroeconomic scenario 2018-2019

Each quarter, Euler Hermes, the world's leading credit insurer, reviews its international macroeconomic scenario and updates its regional growth forecasts per region.

Corporate Debt Hotspots Bubbling Under A Calm Surface

A positive global trend to strengthen corporate balance sheets and reduce gearing is masking a rise in leverage in vulnerable sectors and regions and this in turn is creating hotspots of increased risk for cross border trade, according to the world’s leading trade credit insurer Euler Hermes.

Oil price: Look beyond geopolitics

Oil price strength in Q2 18 has been driven by geopolitics, in particular heightened tension in Syria and in the Middle East, and subsequently the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. Hence, the EH model confirms that the market is now being driven by concerns over geopolitically induced supply shortages that may or may not materialize.

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