Focus on the signal and ignore the noise

Stars finally align for the Eurozone with low interest rates, low oil prices and a weaker euro. The pass-through to corporates is visible (especially in the retail and transport sectors) but is not sizeable yet.

Uncertainties remain around growth momentum in the U.S., the U.K., China, and Japan. In emerging markets, businesses face serious headwinds as country risk components deteriorate in Brazil, Russia, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia or Ghana. Financing conditions and policies are (especially) volatile.

Global insolvencies are expected to decrease by -2% in 2015, but 7 out of 10 countries will experience more insolvencies than in 2007. Increasing sector risk across industries in Russia and neighboring countries, for the machinery and equipment sector for oil producers, and for exporters in Switzerland.