Expo Milano 2015: Made in Italy alla grande?

The Milan Expo will have a limited but positive contribution of 0.1pp to Italian GDP this year. In total, including firstround effects, the Expo could bring up to 0.4 point of GDP from tourism (15 million visitors), export revenue (+10% in some sectors), additional output (EUR6bn) and jobs (~100,000).

Company turnover in key sectors will get a welcome temporary support in 2015: +0.4% for hotels and restaurants (-0.5% in 2014), +0.5% for wholesale and distribution (+0.1% in 2014); 0% for business services (-1% in 2014).

However, 2016 could see a setback for insolvency risk: 2,500 companies in 2017 (1 out of 4 for the 10,000 newly created companies), and 1,500 in 2018 could go bust as activity returns to normal post-Expo.

The Expo should strengthen the �Made in Italy' brand through imported innovation, extra revenue from tourism and new export routes However, restoring competitiveness and increasing R&D spending will be essential for these benefits to come true.