Abolition of RUSF payments to boost exports to Turkey by USD20.2bn in 2015-2016

A significant import barrier, the Resource Utilisation Support Fund (RUSF) payment, 6% of the value of all imported goods, was abolished for around half of Turkish imports in April 2015. This policy change should boost the volume of imports (+2.5pps in 2015), exports (+1.7pps) and investment (+2.2pps) while the impact on GDP growth will be modest (+0.1pps), due to a worsening of net exports.

We expect new market opportunities (USD20.2bn) for exporters to Turkey, with Russia (+2.1bn USD), China (+2.1bn USD) and Germany (+1.9bn USD) being the main beneficiaries. However, non-payment risk will also increase by an estimated +10% in Turkey in 2015.

In turn, we also expect broad-based gains in the value of Turkish exports which should increase by USD9.5bn in 2015-2016, with the largest export gains coming from Germany (+0.9bn USD), the UK (+0.7bn USD) and the U.S. (+0.5bn USD). Textile and agrifood which account for 35% of the export gains, along with transportation which will benefit the most from rising investments are three key winners of the RUSF abolition.