Automotive: Strong growth expected for 2015, with a potential peak in 2016 due to increased cost of credit

Euler Hermes expects further growth in automotive sales of 4% in 2015, to 17.5 million vehicles; the decline of unemployment and gas prices as well as the improvement of consumer confidence are playing key roles in the increase.

For 2016, U.S. light vehicle sales could potentially peak or slightly decline by 1% vs. 2015 due to an expected interest rate hike. Low-cost, foreign auto manufacturers are continuing to take market share from Ford and GM down 25.5 bps year-over-year compared to July 2015.

The MPG of vehicles could increase by 70% by 2025 due to U.S. CAFE, the shift to aluminum parts, and the electrification of vehicles. This should benefit the automotive suppliers that are able to innovate and provide value-added, fuel-efficient products.