Expo Milano 2015: The end or the beginning?

The targeted number of visitors at the Expo Milano (20mn) has almost been achieved. Additional revenues have contributed significantly to the regain in company turnover in service-related sectors with the highest rebound being registered in wholesale and distribution, hotels and restaurants and transport.

In Italy, additional export gains in 2015 will almost double compared with 2014 to reach EUR15bn for goods and EUR6bn for services, thanks to the lower euro, improving demand in Italy's main export

markets and the Expo Milano. More than two-thirds will be concentrated in machinery, chemicals, agri-food, textiles and services.

What is next? In the short-term, the main downside risk is an increase in business insolvencies in the Expo-dependent sectors with up to 1,000 companies in 2016-18 (1 in 10 of the newly created companies), with a peak in 2017 and a concentration in the construction sector. In the worst case scenario up to 3,000 companies could default.

In the medium-term, positive effects could come from the strengthening of the Made in Italy brand through increased synergies across sectors and countries, increased digitalization and innovation