The Olympics: A false (economic) start for Brazil

Bronze medal: growth and jobs.

Just like the football World Cup, the Olympics will not give a significant boost to Brazil's economy. The games will contribute only +0.05 point to growth in 2016 and 120,000 temporary jobs.

This will not offset the deep recession estimated at -3.5% in 2016, after -3.8% in 2015.

Silver medal: Public debt and corporate insolvencies.

The Olympics will add +0.4pp worth of GDP to Brazil's public debt level. This rather small increase (compared to a record acceleration) is concentrated in the State and the City of Rio de Janeiro and contributes to sub-sovereign risks. As for companies, bankruptcies linked to the games could reach +5% in 2016, and +12% among small and micro-enterprises.

Gold medal: Inflation.

Inflationary pressures will be visible and long-lasting. We forecast +1pp added to inflation in 2016 (expected at +8.6%). Out of this combined effect of the sporting mega-events, only +0.4pp will be explained by the Rio Olympics.