Russia-Turkey-Iran: Why the Caspian Sea region is not the Bermuda Triangle of business

A triple shock - rising geopolitical risks, the deep recession in Russia and tumbling commodity prices � has disrupted the economic performance in the Caspian Sea region over the last years. All economies in the region have been affected by declining exports to Russia and falling remittances inflows or tourism income from Russia.

Further, all countries are significant commodity exporters, but net energy exporters (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Iran, Uzbekistan) have suffered more. Average annual real GDP growth in the region fell from +5.5% in 2010-2013 to +3.9% in 2014-2015 and is forecast at +2.6% in 2016-2017. All currencies in the region depreciated or were devalued sharply in 2014-2015, but have stabilized in 2016. The improved business environment, over the past decade, the planned North-South Transport Corridor from Russia via Iran to India and decidive pro-business policies could provide future opportunities for companies in the region.