Italians voted No to constitutional reform in a referendum (59.1%) and Prime Minister Renzi resigned. In 2017, political uncertainty can cause a mild confidence crisis. If there are no spillovers to banks or the bond market as the baseline scenario suggests, the downturn may shave off -0.3pp of Italian GDP. In this case, the economy should grow by a mere +0.6%.
A knee-jerk reaction is inevitable. But a 2011-12 style financial stress, which would cost -0.7pp in GDP growth and push Italy close to zero growth (+0.2%), should be avoided.
Italian companies will bear the brunt of a confidence shock, albeit a mild one.