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China’s success in product assembly, marketing and design relies on huge chip imports.
The Covid-19 crisis provides some leeway for policy support to absorb the negative impact from Brexit, but we expect UK GDP to remain -2% below pre-crisis levels at end-2022.
We surveyed 1,181 companies across five countries and six sectors to gauge their experiences with disruption, and their plans to make supply chains more resilient.
Germany, the Netherlands and France are most exposed.
Entropy shows that the current degree of concentration in the S&P 500 is historically high.
A stop-and-go approach until the return to normal in 2022.
The prosperity gap between rich and poor countries has widened again.
As if markets wanted to remind everyone the risks of interpreting stock market movements, major U.S. equity indices had a hard day on 03 September.
Out of Europe’s major economies, France could experience the largest leakage from its fiscal stimulus.
The prolonged supply-chain disruption likely due to future targeted lockdowns and companies’ precautionary stockpiling will push inventories up in H2 2020.
Georges Dib, Economist at Euler Hermes, explains.
The top EU sectors that will benefit the most are agrifood, energy and machinery.
We have revised down our global trade growth forecast for 2020 by -0.5pp to +1.3%.
Potential weekly losses of exports of goods and services to China could amount to USD26bn, with Hong Kong, the U.S., Japan, South Korea and Germany the most exposed economies.
Focusing on firms with a turnover exceeding EUR50mn, our Q3 2019 monitoring points to quarterly rebound in major insolvencies.