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When it comes to inputs from China, Europe is on the weak side of the tug-of-war against the US.
Companies in Europe and the US could face a profit squeeze from Q4 2021 onwards as sustained supply-chain disruptions slow the manufacturing recovery.
Large companies will face a record increase in WCR in a context of a strong demand rebound triggered by the grand reopening, alongside severe shortages in inputs, labor and final goods.
The SPAC party isn’t over yet, but don’t wait up for another phase of record high offerings as seen in 2020 and Q1 2021 — at least in the US.
Global trade has bounced back stronger than expected so far in 2021, driven by input restocking and shipping constraints rather than supply-demand dynamics.
Europe should play the long game, placing chips where they matter the most.
In the long run, most sectors have (some) pricing power. But the lack of short-term pricing power means low inflation risk in the Eurozone.
China’s success in product assembly, marketing and design relies on huge chip imports.
The Covid-19 crisis provides some leeway for policy support to absorb the negative impact from Brexit, but we expect UK GDP to remain -2% below pre-crisis levels at end-2022.
We surveyed 1,181 companies across five countries and six sectors to gauge their experiences with disruption, and their plans to make supply chains more resilient.
Germany, the Netherlands and France are most exposed.
Entropy shows that the current degree of concentration in the S&P 500 is historically high.
A stop-and-go approach until the return to normal in 2022.
The prosperity gap between rich and poor countries has widened again.
As if markets wanted to remind everyone the risks of interpreting stock market movements, major U.S. equity indices had a hard day on 03 September.