Euler Hermes: Turkish GDP should grow by +3.1% in 2014 and +3.8% in 2015, supported by exports

​Euler Hermes, the world’s leading provider of trade credit insurance, presented the main findings of its second International Trade Observatory at a conference in Istanbul in collaboration with Yapı Kredi and the Turkish Exports Assembly (TIM).
A diverse audience of clients, business leaders, and media representatives were welcomed by Euler Hermes Turkey CEO Özlem Özüner and TIM President Mehmet Büyükekşi. Ludovic Subran, Euler Hermes chief economist, discussed global economic developments, followed by Mustafa Mente, secretary general of TIM and Kaan Şakul, head of Financing and Product Groups at Yapı Kredi.

Turkey’s 2014 GDP growth: +3.1%

“After +4.1% in 2013, we expect a GDP growth of +3.1% in 2014 and +3.8% in 2015,” said Ludovic Subran. “We also expect companies to capture $13 billion of additional exports in 2015, to a total of $180 billion. Turkey grew rapidly between 2003-2008 and made a strong recovery after the economic crisis.”
During a presentation entitled “Turkey: the awakening of an industrial giant?” Subran also detailed export opportunities for Turkey. Clothing and foodstuffs are progressively being replaced by diverse sectors such as automotive, machinery and metal. Of the $13 billion in potential export gains expected in 2015, $11 billion will be generated outside the Eurozone. Three sectors will dominate approximately half of the total potential 2015 export gains: agri-food, automotive and textiles.

EU emergence from recession of great importance for Turkey

“Turkey operates in a very competitive environment, and in order to succeed businesses need favorable domestic conditions for the production and export of value-added products, knowledge of their environment and the ability to quickly adapt,” said Özlem Özüner. “Credit insurance can be a driving force in international trade, not only as exporters target new markets but in helping them to identify quality buyers with whom they can develop healthy turnover growth.”
According to October data, Turkey increased exports by 5.6% in the first 10 months of the year, to a total of $131.1 billion. In addition to the key role of diverse export routes, the EU's emergence from recession is notable since the region accounts for 42% of Turkish exports.

Turkish 2023 export goal: $500 billion

Emphasizing that Turkey has attained achievements of solid merit in foreign trade, TİM President Mehmet Büyükekşi said: “Turkey performed better than countries like the US and China, having increased its foreign trade six-fold in recent years. In the first 10 months of 2014, we increased EU country exports by 12 percent to $52 million. With our 2023 export goal of $500 billion, we aim to rank among the world’s top 10 largest economies, with a 1.5 percent share of the global economy.”

Turkey should be active in international trade

Kaan Şakul, head of Financing and Product Groups at Yapı Kredi stated that Turkey needs to take an active role in international trade: “We place great importance on the support we provide to exporters. In the first nine months of 2014, we handled the foreign trade transactions of around 15,000 customers, equal to 2,000 foreign trade transactions daily. At Yapı Kredi we support exporters - the locomotive force behind the Turkish economy - with traditional financing products as well as the Koç Group’s strength, the alternative resources UniCredit provides, and resources we obtain from capital markets. Looking ahead to our 2023, we believe we can cover more ground as the long-term solution partner of our customers in reaching the $500 billion export goal.”

Exporters expect increased production

Mustafa Mente shared the results of a survey TIM conducted among the top 1,000 exporters who account for 58 percent of Turkey’s total exports: “The survey results indicate that exporters expect both an increase in production and an increase in profits gained from exports.”