Euler Hermes Export Forecast

The Euler Hermes Export Forecast takes into account a wide range of data relevant to the Swiss export industry. 

The Euler Hermes Export Forecast takes into account a wide range of data relevant to the Swiss export industry. Leading indicators of industry, transport, financial and commodity markets as well as new sentiment indicators are taken into account. Around 100 components flow into a dynamic, predictive model in which data series with a stronger lead are weighted higher. The Euler Hermes Export Forecast has a lead time of up to six months compared to the actual exports of the Swiss export industry.

 

December 2021, Export Forecast further growth expected despite headwind, 

The Euler Hermes Export Forecast stands at 0.95 points in November (August 2021: 1.85 points). Accordingly, further double-digit export growth can be expected in the coming half year. The outlook for Europe has improved significantly over the past three months, while the forecasts for the US have been revised downwards. The outlook for the emerging markets remains stable.

 

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August 2021, Export Forecast at a high level despite decline, 

The Euler Hermes Export Forecast stands at 1.85 points. Although this figure is 1.4 points lower than three months ago, the indicator remains at a level that was last achieved in the recovery phase after the financial crisis in 2009. The global labour markets have improved markedly in recent months, which should have a positive impact on consumption. The leading indicators for industry remain on course for a record.

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May 2021, Export Forecast climbs to record high, 

The Export Forecast stands at 3.13 points – more than two points above the figure of 0.78 reported three months ago. Even if special factors are partly responsible for this exploit, a strong increase in Swiss exports can nevertheless be expected this year. While COVID-19 remains a big problem in certain service sectors, goods traffic is benefiting from intact purchasing power and the backlog of demand from private households and companies.

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February 2021, Export Forecast remains at a high level, 

The Export Forecast stands at 0.78 points. This indicates a recovery in Swiss exports over the course of the year. Commodity markets have recovered strongly and leading indicators for industry have been in the growth zone for several months. However, COVID-19 continues to exert considerable pressure on consumer sentiment.

 

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