January 14 2019 • Dan North
The economy performed very well in 2018. GDP growth, expected to be 2.9% for the year, tied 2015 for the strongest of the nine year recovery. Recent growth was particularly impressive in Q2 at 4.2% q/q annualized and 3.5% in Q3. The all-important consumer sector flexed its muscles at 3.8% and 3.6% in Q2 and Q3.
January 02 2019 • Mike Bond
The North American construction market is, after China, the second largest, and the most open and transparent in the world. The magnitude of the construction market opportunity and the low barrier to entry make North America an attractive destination for foreign construction companies.
November 28 2018 • Jon Hammond
On September 24, 2018, global oil prices hit a four-year high of $81.20/b (Brent) after OPEC promised to keep production steady. Investors believed that U.S. sanctions against Iran and outages in Venezuela would lead to supply shortages. But by mid-November, prices fell 18 percent, and have continued a decline.
November 28 2018 • Pat McKinnon
The energy markets are driven by liquidity. Counterparty, credit, and market liquidity are all significant to operations in both the real-time and long-term regimes. All of these types of liquidity are balanced against the seemingly endless list of risk categories. Fundamentally, clearing risk hurdles allows for access to liquidity which in turn promotes growth.
November 26 2018 • Euler Hermes
The holiday sales period is here, and for many retailers, it’s make-or-break time for the year.
November 07 2018 •
The midterm elections and the resulting Democratically controlled House does not change our US economic outlook. GDP is still expected to grow by 2.9% in 2018, and 2.5% in 2019. However, businesses could be affected by policy shifts in six areas: infrastructure spending, regulation, taxes, public budget, trade and immigration.
September 26 2018 • Dan North
As expected the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate from a range of 1.75%-2.0% to a range of 2.0%-2.25%. The “dot plot” showed that 12 of 16 FOMC members now believe that the Fed Funds rate at the end of 2018 will be in the range of 2.25%-2.50%, strongly implying that another hike in December is very likely.
August 30 2018 • Dan North
In addition to yesterday’s upgrade to GDP, the same report showed a sharp uptick in y/y profits to 16.1%, the most in 6.5 yrs. Apparently the corporate tax cut helped because taxes have now fallen a steep 33% y/y, the most in 9.5 years.
As the holiday season starts, it’s time to reflect on what 2018 brought to us, and what 2019 holds in store. Looking back we can see the end of synchronization, more populism, selectivity in a volatile environment, and the end of easy money.
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Brexit is proving much harder to tame than a Shakespearian shrew. As expected, the UK House of Commons rejected Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
At +1.5%, the economy last year recorded its weakest GDP growth since 2013. Domestic demand was the main growth driver in 2018. Private consumption grew by a moderate +1% in real terms.
Imagine a country that is changing rapidly, where the young generation represents 51% of the voters in the next election. Imagine a country where growth is often hard to get in real time but is there.