November 07 2018 •
The midterm elections and the resulting Democratically controlled House does not change our US economic outlook. GDP is still expected to grow by 2.9% in 2018, and 2.5% in 2019. However, businesses could be affected by policy shifts in six areas: infrastructure spending, regulation, taxes, public budget, trade and immigration.
September 26 2018 • Dan North
As expected the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate from a range of 1.75%-2.0% to a range of 2.0%-2.25%. The “dot plot” showed that 12 of 16 FOMC members now believe that the Fed Funds rate at the end of 2018 will be in the range of 2.25%-2.50%, strongly implying that another hike in December is very likely.
August 30 2018 • Dan North
In addition to yesterday’s upgrade to GDP, the same report showed a sharp uptick in y/y profits to 16.1%, the most in 6.5 yrs. Apparently the corporate tax cut helped because taxes have now fallen a steep 33% y/y, the most in 9.5 years.
August 06 2018 • Euler Hermes
Wouldn’t it be better to avoid a non-payment situation in the first place? Start overhauling your organization’s AR risk position with these solutions. Move from reaction to pro-action like never before.
July 09 2018 • Euler Hermes
What would happen if you lost your biggest client or if your industry gets hit with an economic downturn? Don't risk your business for the sake of comfort.
June 12 2018 • Euler Hermes
Self-insuring may come without a direct cost, but remember, unpaid invoices weaken your cash flow and those additional costs will add up quickly. How many opportunities are you missing by self-insuring?
May 07 2018 • Euler Hermes
Suffering a non-payment event—whether it’s your first, the most recent, or the most significant—can feel overwhelming. Damage to companies is never solved overnight. Restoring optimism and trust is an ongoing challenge.
April 18 2018 • Dan North
Recent U.S. data depict a robust economy. The consumer finally returned as retail sales rose for the first time in four months, gaining +0.6% m/m to a +4.5% y/y rate. Auto sales rose +2.0% m/m after four straight months of declines which were caused by hurricane replacement sales in the fall. Core retail sales rose +0.4% m/m, the first increase in four months to a firm +3.8% y/y.
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The storm centers on the US, a ‘high pressure economy’ tirelessly creating jobs. Approaching a situation of overheating, the Fed won’t hesitate to tighten its monetary policy, and this could have global repercussions on the most cash dependent economies and companies. The US fiscal policy also plays the role of a powerful absorber of global USD liquidities by offering attractive returns to investors.
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The upstream paper industry has cashed in on the surge in the global price of pulp (up 60% since the beginning of last year) thanks to Asian demand.
2018 Q1–Q3 posted 247 insolvencies of major companies, totaling EUR105.8bn in turnover.
Q3 GDP grew at an annualized rate of +3.5% q/q, in line with expectations.